Thursday, October 15, 2026 edition · Market data through Oct 14

The bond market moves first.

Treasury yields do not wait for consensus. Explore the US Treasury yield curve, then place the move inside the inflation, labour and credit picture with advanced access.

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Key US macroeconomic data

Labor

7 series

Unemployment rate

Monthly UNRATE

4.2%Sep 2026 · +10 bp

Nonfarm payrolls

Monthly PAYEMS

159.0MSep 2026 · +29k

Labor force participation

Monthly CIVPART

61.8%Sep 2026 · +20 bp

Average hourly earnings

Monthly CES0500000003

$37.81Sep 2026 · +$0.05

Manufacturing hours

Monthly AWHMAN

42Sep 2026 · +0.2 hrs

Job openings

Monthly JTSJOL

7.1MAug 2026 · -256k

Initial jobless claims

Weekly ICSA

197kOct 3 · -2k

Consumer

5 series

Personal income

Monthly PI

$27.6TAug 2026 · +$66.6B

Disposable income

Monthly DSPI

$24.2TAug 2026 · +$68.6B

Consumer spending

Monthly PCE

$22.3TAug 2026 · +$190.8B

Real consumer spending

Monthly PCEC96

$17.0TAug 2026 · +$92.8B

Saving rate

Monthly PSAVERT

4.1%Aug 2026 · -50 bp

Inflation

4 series

CPI (headline)

Monthly CPIAUCSL

336.3Sep 2026 · +2.17

CPI (core)

Monthly CPILFESL

338.9Sep 2026 · +1.13

PCE price index

Monthly PCEPI

131.58Aug 2026 · +0.41

Core PCE

Monthly PCEPILFE

130.46Aug 2026 · +0.32

Housing

4 series

Single-family permits

Monthly PERMIT1

0.88MAug 2026 · -16k

Single-family starts

Monthly HOUST1F

0.92MAug 2026 · +65k

New home sales

Monthly HSN1F

0.68MAug 2026 · +41k

Home prices

Monthly CSUSHPINSA

337.31Jul 2026 · +0.4

Business

3 series

Core capex orders

Monthly NEWORDER

$5.3TAug 2026 · +$16B

Durables ex-transport

Monthly ADXTNO

$19.0TAug 2026 · +$201B

Inventory-sales ratio

Monthly ISRATIO

1.30Jul 2026 · 0

Production

4 series

Industrial production

Monthly INDPRO

103.07Aug 2026 · +0.02

Manufacturing output

Monthly IPMAN

99.1Aug 2026 · -0.3

Capacity utilization

Monthly TCU

76.3%Aug 2026 · -5 bp

Factory utilization

Monthly CUMFNS

75.7%Aug 2026 · -27 bp

Energy

4 series

Regular gasoline

Monthly GASREGM

$4.36Sep 2026 · +$0.3

Henry Hub gas

Monthly MHHNGSP

$2.95Sep 2026 · +$0.17

WTI crude oil

Monthly MCOILWTICO

$97.31Sep 2026 · +$13.41

Electricity price

Monthly APU000072610

$0.196Sep 2026 · $0

Rates & Credit

6 series

3-month Treasury yield

Daily DGS3MO

4.28%Oct 14 · +2 bp

2-year Treasury yield

Daily DGS2

4.82%Oct 14 · +3 bp

5-year Treasury yield

Daily DGS5

5.00%Oct 14 · 0 bp

10-year Treasury yield

Daily DGS10

5.19%Oct 14 · -2 bp

30-year Treasury yield

Daily DGS30

5.52%Oct 14 · -4 bp

10y-3m yield curve

Daily T10Y3M

91 bpOct 14 · -4 bp

Policy & Funding

3 series

10Y term premium

Monthly ACMTP10Y

0.89%Sep 2026 · +13 bp

Treasury cash balance

Monthly TGACLOSE

$893.7BOct 2026 · -$90.3B

Coupon bid-cover

Monthly AUCTBTC

2.62Oct 2026 · +0.11

Credit Stress

3 series

Investment-grade OAS

Daily BAMLC0A0CM

0.83%Oct 13 · 0 bp

High-yield OAS

Daily BAMLH0A0HYM2

3.16%Oct 13 · +5 bp

Financial stress index

Weekly STLFSI4

-0.72Oct 9 · -0.25